I can now be found at SportsProfitSystem.com
I have never really considered myself a “Sports Handicapper”, although that's what most people would call me. I’ve always thought of myself more as a sports fan that simply enjoys betting on sports. I enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the odds makers by picking the correct side of a game. I can remember when I first start betting on sports, man was I terrible, or at least I thought I was. I‘m sure there are lot of you out there that can relate to this. I would sit at my computer, or stare at the newspaper, look at the different games, weigh my options, go back and forth on which side to take and hours later I would finally make a decision. In the end, I always felt confident about my pick, thinking that I was definitely on "the right side of this one"... but somehow, when all was said and done, I always seemed to be on the losing end... almost every time. I would look at a line and think to myself “This is too easy, team X is going to kill them”, then after the game I would still be sitting there in disbelief when the play lost saying “Man, how could that lose?”.
That’s how sports betting is, you always think that you have it figured out; that you are smarter than the people who make the lines. That you have some insight into a game or a gut feeling about it but every time you put some money down on it, things seem to happen that wouldn't normally happen. A star QB throws a record number of interceptions in a game, a clutch shooter is all of a sudden missing all of his shots, a stud pitcher is throwing nothing but junk. That was the story of my sports betting life. If a fumble were to happen, the team I bet on had dropped it, if someone missed a key 3 pointer, yeah that was my play. A meaningless basket or touchdown at the end of a game to blow the cover, or my favorite... a walk-off homerun...yup that had my name written all over it. It was incredibly frustrating. I am sure a lot of you know what I am talking about.
I was completely turned off; I was tired of throwing my hard earned money down the drain, consistently betting on the wrong side. How could I almost always be on the losing end? With a 50-50 shot of picking the winner I would pick the wrong side almost every time. What was I missing? I couldn't be that bad, could I? There had to be a way to get an edge and I was determined to find one.
At that point I had decided that I needed a break, I had actually stopped betting on sports for a while . I was tired of learning things as I go and losing my bankroll along with it. So, for a couple of years I just sat back and watched. When I say watched, I mean I watched everything. I watched the lines, I watched the teams, I watched the games…all I did was watch and take everything in. I lived, breathed and ate sports during that time. I would see huge spreads being covered where I thought the other side was the correct play, I would see ranked teams losing small spread games at home. All the while wondering how this stuff could happen? I was amazed at the different things I saw that actually told a story on how the game was going to be played out, before the game even started. I decided that I wanted to get back in the game, only this time around I wanted to do things right. If I was going to put my money down for something, I wanted to get something in return.
I started out by taking a handful of games that I thought looked interesting at first glance and I began studying them. I would look at the stats, the scoring of each team and different situational elements, the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, common opponents; I would consider the location of the game being played, the weather and field conditions. I spent hours upon hours each day just researching. Looking for that edge. Essentially, almost without even knowing, I began handicapping my own games. I would apply a line to each game based off of the research that I did. I would compare my lines against the lines makers and check for differences. I was amazed at what I saw.
Most of the time the line that I had come out with resembled the actual line put out by the book, with maybe a slight difference. They lines makers obviously know what they are doing, however there were times where our opinions weren’t even in the same ballpark. One day, according to my analysis, I had what Vegas considered an "underdog" as a pretty significant favorite. I remember thinking that I must have may have screwed up somewhere. There is no way there could be that big of a difference in our opinions... could there? Watching the game later that night I saw that the Vegas “underdog” not only won the game outright but won the game by 10 points ( I had them winning by 3 ). So I got lucky right? At least that what I thought. That is until it happened again. I found another significant gap between my analysis and where the line was at. This time I decided to test my theory and put some money on it. If there was anything that could kill a play dead, it would be me putting any kind of money on it. It was always the kiss of death. I waited for the key moment in the game where something bad was going to happen. I could feel it coming. I waited and braced myself for it...it never came. I actually ended up winning. I was on the right side. Now I was intrigued.
I waited and waited, day after day for another big difference in our lines. I must have waited 3 weeks before I found another one. Granted it was nice to finally be picking winners, but I was putting all of this time and effort into analyzing matchups, that ultimately I weren't playing because I was just waiting for that one huge play. Well that wasn’t working for me. I needed to find another way. All of my research and stats would only tell so much. I needed to find a way to pick a side in a closely capped game.
That’s when it hit me. Above all else, I was a sports fan. I had spent all that time just watching how things played out. I watched all of the games, I knew the different match-ups, the situational plays. I knew the intangibles of the game, things like momentum, motivation, heart. I remember seeing how the lines set up for particular matchups. Key things that could be a difference between winning and losing. I assumed that the lines-makers already accounted for most of these elements, but then I started thinking; they have a job to do... they are in the business to make games even.. to make sure that even money goes on each side...they don't care who wins or loses. I'm the one who cares who wins or loses. Ultimately it's my job to pick the winner based on all of the information that is around me. Looking at a sharply capped game it all came down to perspective and opinion. So I began playing some of the plays where I found subtle differences between the way I handicapped a game and where the line was at. The little differences I found ended up making a big difference in the way I approached my plays. Did I win every single play? No, of course not, but I was hitting enough games now to make a profit. Isn't that what it's ultimately all about, making a profit? For the last 4 years I have been playing this way, and it has paid off big time. I’ve come a long way from the guy who couldn’t win a game when money was on the line.
While I can't promise that you will win every single play, what I can offer are the plays that I feel give you the very best chance to win.
Please feel free to take a look around my site and if anyone has any questions I am always available and will try to answer them to the best of my ability. Best of Luck in your future wagers.